Big Blue Wave?

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By Sherman R. Frederick/Properly Subversive

One hundred and thirty-four years ago, Arthur Conan Doyle published “The Adventure of Silver Blaze.” It’s a cool Sherlock Holmes adventure (as they all are) that pivots around the idea that sometimes what doesn’t happen tells you more than what does.

In this case, a racehorse named Silver Blaze disappears, and its trainer, John Straker, is found dead. Inspector Gregory investigates, but Holmes notices a seemingly insignificant detail: The stable dog did not bark during the night.

Holmes explains the importance of this clue: “The dog did nothing in the nighttime.”

Inspector Gregory asks whether there is anything remarkable about that. Holmes replies:

“That was the curious incident.”

We think that principle is afoot when looking at polls this midterm election that tell us it’s going to be a big, big year for Democrats. 

“Halloween Comes Early For Republicans … 85% Chance Dems Take House … 59% Senate,” screamed one headline on Drudge Report. 

Another said, “Blue Wave Builds, Dems Lead Red States.”

OK, maybe it will be a big year, but then what about that curious incident in the primary races where polls got races dreadfully wrong? Radical candidate Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan was supposed to win by 13 points, according to the polls. 

He won by less than one point. 

That’s a big miss, and it was just four months ago.

Look, if history is any guide, this should be a good year for Democrats. They should pick up seats in the House and the Senate.

But we’d like to hold out the curious question of why the dog didn’t bark in the primary elections. 

As a sidebar to this principle, consider this excerpt from a speech given by Ted Nugent at a Trump rally this week:

“I believe my life pivots upon God, family, country, constitution, the Bill of Rights, the Ten Commandments, the Golden Rule, work ethic, law and order, self-defense, private property rights!”

If a pollster asked people what they thought of that, half would say they don’t agree, not because of what Ted Nugent said, but because it’s Ted Nugent being Ted Nugent, basking in his rocker style of zigging when everyone else is zagging. 

Take Ted Nugent out of the picture, and we believe a large percentage of Americans would identify with the above statement. But separating style from substance is something pollsters have a hard time measuring. With all due apologies to Sir Arthur Conan Doyle and English teachers everywhere, “They can’t hear the noise that dogs make when they don’t bark.”

(Sherman R. Frederick is a longtime Nevada journalist and founder of Battle Born Media. You find more by him at shermanfrederick.substack.com)